The War Climate in VI

War

This post was spurred on by some discussion in another thread about Skyrim's Civil War.

I read through UESP and noted the allegiance of each country:
Hammerfell = Independent
Black Marsh = Independent
Morrowind = Independent
Skyrim = Empire or Independent
Cyrodiil = Empire
HIgh Rock = Empire
Valenwood = Aldmeri Dominion
Anequina/Pelletine (Elsweyr) = Aldmeri Dominion
Alinor (Summerset Isle) = Aldmeri Dominion

So 3-4 countries are independent. 2-3 are ruled by the Empire. 3 are ruled by the Aldmeri Dominion/Thalmor.

In VI the state of Skyrim has four separate potentials. It could be Aldmeri Dominion controlled, it could be Empire controlled, it could be Independent, or it could be split with half given to the Stormcloaks and the other half ruled by the Empire.
I highly doubt the Aldmeri Dominion will control it. I kind of get the feeling that that Skyrim will either be Independent or half-ruled in the next title.

Here I want to figure out what kind of position all the nations are in and if they can defeat the Aldmeri Dominion.

Hammerfell = Weakened by its recent war with the Dominion.
Morrowind = Weakened by losing Vvardenfell due to (super)natural events and suffering a huge loss due to the Argonian invasion.
Black Marsh = Recently gained Morrowind territory. Strong. Ruled by the Hist(?). Would probably die fighting before joining the Dominion.
Skyrim = Weak due to the dragon attack and the Civil War.
Cyrodill = Steady.
High Rock = Steady.
Valenwood = Firmly under control of Aldmeri Dominion, steady.
Anequina/Pelletine = Split by Dominion, steady. Kind of an uneasy alliance though, the Thalmor won the Khajiit over with a lie. If there's any doubt about the Thalmor or if their actions are determined false, there could be rebellion. The Thalmor just need to keep them happy so they can move troops through Khajiit territory.
Alinor = Aldmeri Dominion, capital, strong.

Potentially, the independent countries could form an alliance to fight the Aldmeri Dominion, not sure if they would fight or ignore the Empire though (maybe they will help the Empire but remain separate?) Skyrim, Morrowind, and Hammerfell could form an alliance (unlikely with Morrowind though). The Black Marsh would probably stay independent as they hate the Dunmer, unless the Hist felt that the defeat of the Aldmeri Dominion was necessary. The Argonians also supposedly hate the Khajiit so that's a reason for them to fight the Thalmor.

By itself I don't think the Empire could do much as they lost many territories and may remain with only two countries in VI. With High Rock being geographically isolated from Cyrodiil I don't see them being able to manage both nations well. I think the Empire will need help from the Independent nations in the next title or else it may be defeated if the Aldmeri Dominion makes a move.

The Aldmeri Dominion has Valenwood, Anequina/Pelletine, and Alinor, but I don't believe they have a strong hold on what was Elsweyr. If they defeat the Empire they could easily spread their influence once again through Cyrodiil. I can see the next game being about taking the fight to the Thalmor and fighting for the Independence of Valenwood, shortly after some event effects the nationality of Anequina/Pelletine. The Dominion may be driven back to Alinor and be forced to surrender if all goes well. If Black Marsh decides to help either the Empire or the Independent states then I think there is a lot better of a chance for everyone fighting the Dominion.

There is also the chance that VI takes place sometime before 4E 200 though. Maybe it could be about the uprising of the new Aldmeri Dominion?

Majoron

I think that in future games we'll be seeing less of the Cyrodiilic Empire. Judging by the way the lore is going, it seems like the Empire's power is fading, and I would hazard a guess that the Stormcloaks canonically win the Civil War (though they may indeed split the territory in two, with the East being independent and the West being Empire-controlled). This leaves a power vacuum which, it seems, the Aldmeri Dominion is eager to fill.

Going by my gut instinct, it seems too grandiose to have a continental battle between the Aldmeri Dominion and their opponents, though I suppose it could go this way. My guess, though, would be that either the war has not yet progressed to that point, meaning that things are not yet on a continental scale (in this case the story may be centred around Valenwood's war of independence) or the Aldmeri dominion have not launched attacks on other provinces yet, and the story does not focus on the Aldmeri Dominion. This may be due to losing a significant amount of forces when driven out of Skyrim (which I think is inevitable).

As much as I would like to see a game set before the events of Skyrim, I doubt this would happen.

EDIT: I think it's impossible that Skyrim's Civil War is ongoing during TES:VI, as there is already a set conclusion for the Civil War within a few years of 4E 201.

Cozy

I think the Dominion is probably at it's peak during the events of Skyrim. Considering how they're treating the provinces currently under their control (implied genocide in Valenwood, violent religious inquisition in Skyrim, conquest by deceit in Elsweyr, etc.) and how they're openly hostile and racist towards all the other races in Tamriel, it would take a pretty major Deus Ex Machina for them to actually hold on to the provinces they've taken.

They've made enemies of literally everyone, even the wood elves who used to be their allies. If the Empire promises to relinquish their claim on some of the other provinces that want independence, I can easily see them forming an anti-dominion alliance.